Georgia
I am not a political scientist, but the terms 'I told you so' come to mind.
The United States and West needed to respond to the horrific and immoral 911 attacks, and invading Afghanistan was seemingly the most reasonable move. Iraq remains a much more questionable military operation. All along I have thought that although terrorism is a threat to Western safety, the greatest external human (we may self-destruct) potential threats to our Western freedom are from Russia and China. Seemingly more from Russia, as the country has not integrated as a fully democratic country into the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Europe is a buffer between North America and Russia and the East. China has historically, under communism, not been as interested in invading other countries.
The country of Georgia did apply for membership in NATO previously:
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2006-10/2006-10-17-voa25.cfm?CFID=25811343&CFTOKEN=64008781
NATO: Georgia Must Improve Ties with Russia Before Entering Alliance
By VOA News
17 October 2006
A senior NATO military officer says Georgia must improve relations with Russia and work to resolve its internal conflicts, if it is to gain entry into the Atlantic alliance.
Canadian General Raymond Henault's comments came Tuesday in Moscow, where he met with top Russian military and political officials.
Russian-Georgian relations are expected to be a key topic later this week, when European leaders meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Finland.
Georgia applied for NATO membership after reformist President Mikhail Saakashvili assumed office in 2004.
Tensions between Georgia and Russia increased sharply after the Georgians last month briefly detained four Russian army officers on spy charges. The arrests prompted Moscow to close some Georgian-owned businesses in Moscow, and to begin expelling Georgian nationals from the country.
Georgia, for its part, announced plans to block Russian efforts for Word Trade Organization membership.
Georgia accuses Russian peacekeepers of backing pro-Russian separatists in its two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The areas declared independence after fighting in the early 1990s. Georgia vows to bring both areas back under its control.
I am not claiming to be expert on the Georgia-Russia war, and am not taking Georgia's side. But, when I see Russia's further move into Georgia today, I wonder if Russia is not interested in reestablishing dominance in Eastern Europe. I realize there is a dispute and it is not a clear-cut case. This is from CNN.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/14/georgia.russia.loophole/index.html
The French-brokered deal allows Russian peacekeepers to "implement additional security measures" until international security can be put in place.
That could be interpreted by Russia as operations outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two disputed border regions at the heart of the conflict. Russia had peacekeeping troops in those regions before last week.
There are reports of Russian troops advancing into Georgia rather than following a ceasefire agreement. From the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation:
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/08/14/russia-georgia.html
In a day of conflicting news, there are reports that Russian troops are advancing rather than pulling back in parts of Georgia, hanging on to the key central city of Gori and sending forces to the Black Sea oil port of Poti.
"At the moment, Georgian territory remains occupied by Russian armed forces," Irakli Alasania, the Georgian ambassador to the UN, told reporters in New York. "Georgian cities remain to be subject to the hostile and aggressive behaviour of Russian military."
He said Russia is violating the ceasefire agreement and accused Russian troops of "looting, murder and destruction."
A French-brokered ceasefire agreement called for both sides to pull back to positions they held before the fighting started last Friday. When Georgia sent troops to try to retake the Russian-dominated breakaway region of South Ossetia, Russia pushed them back and advanced far into undisputed Georgian territory...
At the Pentagon, a U.S. general said the Russians seem to be moving back to positions from which they can start to make an orderly exit. But a U.S. diplomat in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, said reports on the ground are contradictory...
In another development, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters that "one can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity" in South Ossetia and another Russian-dominated separatist region, Abkhazia, suggesting that Russia might absorb them...
In Washington, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, rejected the idea that Washington emboldened Georgia to defy Russia by pushing for Georgian membership in NATO.
From:
http://www.nato.int/STRUCTUR/countries.htm
A list of NATO members:
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
Czech Rep
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO
...the organization constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.
It appears NATO did not want to battle Russia in war over Georgia and therefore did not allow Georgia into NATO, where NATO would be legally obligated to offer military resistance to Georgia in this current conflict. I wonder if with this current Russian move into Georgia, NATO member countries and the United States in particular, will see Eastern Europe as less secure than thought and focus more on defence closer to home and less on Middle Eastern exploits.
The former Soviet Republic of Georgia. The Georgia under attack.
Georgia, USA. Not under attack.
http://thekingpin68.blogspot.com/2008/08/religious-labels.html
Russ, I really do need to throw in an opposing argument here. It's just been that kind of day. While the Western media have been playing the news like Russia invading former Soviet republics to rebuild the USSR, there is a human rights issue that actually casts the Russians as the good guys. Georgia had made a move against the ethnic Ossetians, against whom they had previously made such attacks as the kidnapping of 1,000 schoolchildren and civilians in a schoolhouse, rigging the building with explosives for max casualties when a rescue force arrived (1992). This time, apparently with no warning or provocation, they began carpeting the Ossetian capital of Tskhinval with rockets, obviously to inflict as much civilian damage as possible. When Russia moved to protect the Ossetians, there was a sudden hue and cry about "Russian aggression." Maybe stepping in to protect a weaker friend is a little nicer than what they're getting credit for? I don't know, I just got it from a friend of mine.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Robert.
ReplyDeleteYour point is accepted, and my article does not take sides. I can see Russia defending Russians inside Georgia, and perhaps taking them back to Russia, there is plenty of room.
From my limited understanding there are no good guys in this battle. The Russians could protect those of ethnic Russian origin and not invade other parts of Georgia. It is also very debatable whether Russia simply has the right to annex those parts of Georgia and even mention (as heard on CNN) regime change in Georgia.
Should a dispute with Russia over an issue, even if Russians have been wronged, allow Russia to invade other parts of the offending country, threaten annexation and suggest regime change? I think not.
From your friend's informative article:
Therefore, RUSSIA HAD NO CHOICE but to move to defend the Ossetians.
How far should they take defence?
Russ:)
Russ,
ReplyDeleteI hope you get well soon.
So you're doing political blog articles now, huh?
Georgia, USA. Not under attack.
LOL!
...the greatest external human (we may self-destruct) potential threats to our Western freedom are from Russia and China. Seemingly more from Russia...
If you had said this 25 years ago, I would have agreed. But, since the fall of the Iron Curtain/the U.S.S.R., I no longer see a huge threat from those countries. 'Prophetic' books that were written back in the 80's (such as Hal Lindsey's "The 1980s: Countdown to Armageddon") have made predictions that have not come to pass. In Lindsey's 1970 book, "The Late, Great Planet Earth," and/or in his other books, he predicted that the Soviet Union was Gog; that the Cold War would continue indefinitely; and other things. Well, the Cold War is over, and the U.S.S.R. is no more. Glasnost and perestroika changed all of that.
And the fact that Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia are part of N.A.T.O. is significant, I think.
That's not to say that modern-day Russia could not pose any threat, but personally, I see Revelation pointing to the Middle East, even though I don't believe anyone knows positively who or what Gog and Magog are (though theories and speculation abound).
China has never been able to unify. That's why the tiny island of Japan has been able to beat such a supergiant in the past. Of course, with nuclear weapons, large armies are no longer the biggest threat (though it has been said that nuclear weapons are no longer a 'weapon,' but they are really only a status symbol now). And economically, China has the United States by the throat, including areas such as the stock market.
Some, such as Lindsey, have made predictions about the European Common Market and the revived Roman Empire. I think some may have also made predictions about the World Council of Churches and religious toleration.
Nevertheless, I still believe that the End Game will be in the Middle East. Israel is the center of the world, in more ways than one, and the Arab countries have been Israel's enemies for a long, long time. Isaac vs. Ishmael. Middle East oil has played a huge part now for many years. And now the Arab countries have nuclear weapons too. Muslim terrorist acts are increasing.
Jews are moving back to Israel. There have been rumors of plans to rebuild the temple. A revival is going on in Israel, so the 144,000 Jewish believers may not be far off.
Thanks, Jeff.
ReplyDeleteThis posting is as much philosophical as political. As far as the end times are concerned the Middle East as of yet does not provide a super power. Frankly, I will believe they have one when I see it. It could be that in the future Middle Eastern countries and perhaps Russia and even China oppose Israel. I present this as a possibility only and I am not predicting the involvement of Russia and China.
Great news!
Dear Prospective Representative, I am looking for someone to employ in the position of a Personal Assistant for me part time or fulltime. I need someone who would attend seminars and conferences all expense paid, receive and handle phone calls. YOu would also receive and issue payments on my behalf as at when due (Utility bills and allowances), These payments are in form of bank transfers and they would be paid into your Bank Account or a designated account. JOB DESCRIPTION? 1. Receive payment and issue payments. 2. Receive and make phone calls 3. Receive and forward letters and documents. 4. Attend seminars and conferences, not mandatory. But there is extra pay for attendance. HOW MUCH YOU WILL EARN? The pay is on contract basis. It depends on how much work and efficiency with which you work. The pay is very lucrative. ADVANTAGES You do not have to leave your house unless there is a seminar or conference to attend. And attending such comes with great reward and benefit. NOTE You must be located in the UNITED STATE OF AMERICA OR CANADA. If you are interested, please signify your interest by sending your full name,address and phone number. I will be expecting to hear from you as your utmost consent will be awaited. Regards.... DAVID JAMES
There was a woman who received an email similar to the one you just posted. She took the job and actually got paid for it. All she had to do was ship out things that she had received. Well, the FBI came to her door, because she was shipping illegal items. However, she got to be on a talk show, so it all ended well.
ReplyDeleteI just finished making my previous comment, and then I went to my email, and ironically, I read the following, that a friend sent me:
"Putin Response Isn't Limited To Punishment
By RICHARD COHEN
August 12, 2008 4:30 PM PT
History is never so cooperative as to neatly repeat itself.
Russia's invasion of Georgia will not bring back the Cold War in so far as that was a battle between communism and the Western democracies. But in so far as the Cold War represented Russian — not Soviet — nationalism and imperialism, this is something we've seen before. Vladimir Putin is intent on making a statement:
Russia is back.
It would have been an easy thing for the Russians to have thrown the Georgians out of the two disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia is mighty; Georgia is not. Russia is huge; Georgia is tiny.
The whole thing is a mismatch from the word go and the Georgians — when it is appropriate to do so — have to be reminded that you do not poke a sleeping bear with a stick. Little nations ought to know their place.
But the bombing, including areas near the capital of Tbilisi, is not merely disproportionate, it is purposely, studiously, coldly atrocious. It is meant to punish — not as a deterrent, the Israeli approach to such things, but as a way to show the world that the old Russia is reasserting itself.
This is the Russia of strong nationalism. This is the Russia whose version of manifest destiny has always included the Caucasus. This is the Russia that looks at Georgia no differently than did the czars or, for that matter, that most infamous of Georgians, Stalin himself. This is a Russia that wants a friendly leader on its border.
It wants Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to go.
For those who thought history had ended or that nationalism was a spent force or the nation-state was passe or that globalization was going to make us all more interested in 401(k)s than in hoisting banners high over conquered lands, the Russian invasion of Georgia is a breath of dank air from the rancid past.
It reeks of spheres of interest and Metternichian understandings of how the world works and power is exercised. It is also a refreshing reminder that sprinkling BMW dealerships hither and yon in this or that country does not, in the end, change the culture all that much.
Russia, as my grandmother could have told George W. Bush, always fights dirty.
The reality of old has been greeted as shockingly new in Washington. The Bush administration's policy has been to seek NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, another former Soviet republic. This is yet another example of policy disconnected from national interests, not to mention reality.
Russian bombs have rained down on Georgia. Would we go to war to stop that? No way. But that is the very reason for NATO. You hit one of our guys, and we're going to hit you back. Britain? You bet. France? Certainly. Germany? Yes, indeed. Georgia? Give us some time to think about it.
As the Soviet Union collapsed, it was instructive to read the literature of what happened in Central Europe when the German, Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires were swept away. Nationalism became rampant. Because German cities were not occupied and damaged in World War I, defeat could be blamed on internal elements — Jews, communists, etc.
Something similar happened with the Soviet Union. It collapsed, but it was not defeated. Under (the usual) strong leader, it would come back. Putin is no Hitler. But he is no Yeltsin, either.
World War I, whose origins are still open to debate, started in the Balkans, a remote region of Europe that was not worth even a minor war. The Caucasian region is similarly remote, another ethnic hodgepodge. It would make no sense to turn the Caucasus into a latter-day Balkans and it makes no sense, either, to demonize Russia for doing what it has always done.
The U.S. needs Moscow to continue its cooperation on Iran. In addition, we have to bear in mind what we would do under similar circumstances. In a way, the Caucasus is Russia's Latin America — a sphere of influence asserted by its own version of the Monroe Doctrine.
The recognition of reality does not for a moment mean that Russia has to be given free rein. Although it is loath to admit it, Moscow needs the West — for trade, certainly, but also for approval. Peter the Great built his capital to face Europe, and Putin, don't forget, was mayor of St. Petersburg. He likes the West. But he ought to be reminded that the West no longer likes him. That, too, is reality."
Jeff, both the email information and article are interesting.
ReplyDeleteI think the author is on to something, although I do not doubt that wrongs have been committed by both Russia and Georgia.
I believe in honouring negotiated border agreements.
Thank God I'm an amillenialist! :-)
ReplyDeleteSadly, Russ, your "clarification" of which Georgia was at war is probably very necessary today. I can image hundreds of thousands of high school students thinking that Russia was bombing Atlanta :-)
This is a very interesting situation...not because I think it has something to do with any "left behind" scenerio, but because it shows how "small" the world is now (nothing happens anymore without the world seeing it) and how we need to have a President who can lead us strongly through an ever shrinking globe. Who do we trust?
Thankfully, my hope is not in Obama or McCain (though I will choose between the two). My hope is in the Lord. I belong (even now) to the Kingdom of God--a universal Kingdom comprised of people from every tongue, tribe, nation and people (Russians and Georgians, etc). This is our great hope as Christians and through all the political gobbeldygook (America's or otherwise), this is the message that we should be proclaiming.
Oops, I started to venture onto my soapbox--sorry Russ! :-)
War President wannbe freedumbbbed Butcher of Baghdad Bush is the "Worst Bullying bastard in the world in 21st Century", and he calls Putin a Bully?.
ReplyDeleteMcCain calls "Democracies dont attack sovereign nations"?.
McCain must be too old Bully, to fotget ,that Demokkkratic rogue state USA, illegally invaded and shock&awe bombed Iraqi babies,in sovereign UN charter member Nation Iraq.
TAO,USA.
Russ,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the posting on Russia. I agree that this is as much about philosphy as it is about politics. I think where we run into trouble is when we let politicians get lazy on philosophy - in this case ethics. Philosphy itself also requires some reality checks and benefits when applied to the pressures of contemporary issues.
I agree that the Georgians likely mistreated their ethnic russian minorities to some extent. But this does not warrant a wholesale invasion. Unfortunately the dubious US grounds for Iraqi invasion have lowered the bar somewhat on the practice. As to the comment that China and Russia are not that important a threat anymore, that speaks more to a lack of recent media focus than to the reality on the ground. China for its part plays a key role in supporting oppressive states around the world in areas such as Sudan / Darfur and Zimbabwae as it seeks to acquire resources by any means necessary.
But back to Russia. Do not make the mistake of seeing this as some obscure event in the far flung Caucus region. Check out http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/world/europe/16poland.html?hp
Russia is the biggest country in the world, is the dominant supplier of energy to Europe, still has the largest military outside the US but not quite so many current engagements - yet. It also has a nasty habbit of throwing its weight around as the inserted article points out. So we do need to keep an eye on this and the West needs to counter this threat with bold but measured action or we are likely to see increasingly greater impacts of this applied philosphy of resurgent nationalism.
Cheers from Manitoba (for now)
Dean
Mr. Bush is making a stupid mistake. He has to understant that what Russia is doing is exactly what he (Bush) has done in Iraq; INVADING. I guess Russia RESPONDED to attacks by Georgia.
ReplyDeleteI don´t understand why in earth Bush is involving in that conflict, the stupid idea that the americans are the police of the world is coming to and end. I might even think that it's good that RUSSIA is showing his presence in the region because this world now need a balance to the stupidity of american conservatists. I hope Russia won't kneel to Bush's desires.
My ideas might seem bad, but reality hurts.
See the John Bolton analysis:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2563260/John-Bolton-After-Russias-invasion-of-Georgia-what-now-for-the-West.html
GGM, thanks.
ReplyDeleteA thought that comes to mind is if Georgia was in NATO presently, would the United States and allies be willing and able to battle Russia? Again, in this context it is not a case of the good and bad guys, as well.
Russ:)
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteI have not supported the present Gulf war on my blogs, or said much about it, but I did state in this article the following:
Iraq remains a much more questionable military operation.
Thank you, Anon.
Deaaaaan!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the posting on Russia.
Fantastic to see you commenting.
I agree that this is as much about philosphy as it is about politics. I think where we run into trouble is when we let politicians get lazy on philosophy - in this case ethics.
You nailed it.
I agree that the Georgians likely mistreated their ethnic russian minorities to some extent. But this does not warrant a wholesale invasion.
Agreed!
Unfortunately the dubious US grounds for Iraqi invasion have lowered the bar somewhat on the practice.
Yes. Although I support the West militarily in general terms as the safeguard of democracy, I do not necessarily support all military action. There must be just reasons to fight, and a serious threat to a nation, not just a potential one.
Do not make the mistake of seeing this as some obscure event in the far flung Caucus region. Check out
Yes, this has been building up since the fall of the Soviet Union. From the article:
The United States and Poland reached a long-stalled deal on Thursday to place an American missile defense base on Polish territory, in the strongest reaction so far to Russia’s military operation in Georgia.
Russia reacted angrily, saying that the move would worsen relations with the United States that have already been strained severely in the week since Russian troops entered separatist enclaves in Georgia, a close American ally.
South Ossetia is the pro-Russian enclave inside Georgia where Russia sent troops last week, following a military crackdown by the pro-Western government in Georgia.
End of article.
It also has a nasty habbit of throwing its weight around as the inserted article points out. So we do need to keep an eye on this and the West needs to counter this threat with bold but measured action or we are likely to see increasingly greater impacts of this applied philosphy of resurgent nationalism.
Yes, I agree Dean.
Russ:)
Thanks, Ettore Tattaglia.
ReplyDeletethe stupid idea that the americans are the police of the world is coming to and end.
I think the United States and NATO should police the West, and not the world, and keep us free from tyranny. I do not trust the United Nations as too many nations are not democratic.
Russ:)
Thanks, Mr.Ox.
ReplyDeleteSome of what Mr. Bolton states:
First, Russia has made it clear that it will not accept a vacuum between its borders and the boundary line of Nato membership. Since the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union collapsed, this has been a central question affecting successive Nato membership decisions, with the fear that nations in the “gap” between Nato and Russia would actually be more at risk of Russian aggression than if they joined Nato. The potential for instability and confrontation was evident.
By its actions in Georgia, Russia has made clear that its long-range objective is to fill that “gap” if we do not. That, as Western leaders like to say, is “unacceptable”. Accordingly, we should have a foreign-minister-level meeting of Nato to reverse the spring capitulation at Bucharest, and to decide that Georgia and Ukraine will be Nato’s next members. By drawing the line clearly, we are not provoking Russia, but doing just the opposite: letting them know that aggressive behaviour will result in costs that they will not want to bear, thus stabilising a critical seam between Russia and the West. In effect, we have already done this successfully with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
I have listened to John R. Bolton on BBC Radio. He is very good with International affairs as a topic.
Russ,
ReplyDeleteIt has been a while since I have really concerned myself with any thoughts of Russia being a threat to the Western world. Russia has remained power with weapons that was well represented by the cartoon of the drunken bear. A lot of power with no ability to focus.
And, I think this is the point we should consider.
With the United States at every Arab nations back door, threatening to use force on anyone who begins to even think about power, The Russian Nation has seen its opportunity to Bring back the Iron Curtain.
Sure, Georgia has done some things out of poor judgement and has been "punished" as Russia said was the intent. But, now that the war has began, it seems reasonable to believe that Russia wants to bait a weakoned U.S. millitary and take back the standards of a socialist capital. If we make no move to stop them, will they stop? Depends on their motive. And the more we say stop, and do nothing the more we will see the motive. Could be Gogs last stand.
Jim
I guess on the world stage the action never stops. There's never an intermission.
ReplyDeleteRussia and the Caucasus have a long and troublesome history, and one that is not likely to be resolved anytime soon. Russia has always been sort of "iron-fisted" (heck, they even try to rule over the North Pole!), but it is true, the whole region is troubled and not all on account of Russia. Those kind of political debacles are incredibly tricky to deal with.
I'm not going to pretend to have solutions, all I know to do is pray.
it seems reasonable to believe that Russia wants to bait a weakoned U.S. millitary and take back the standards of a socialist capital.
ReplyDeleteThis concern me. Although I acknowledge terrorism is a legitimate threat, as with 911 and 7/7 in London, I still reason NATO's primary mission should be to defend and maintain Western interests, rather than trying to Westernize in the Middle East.
Thanks, Jim.
Those are wise words, Jake. Russia is a concern as a power that is iron-fisted and not very democratic.
ReplyDeleteWe should as Christians pray and understand foreign affairs are tricky business.
Thanks,
Russ
To Dean,
ReplyDeleteAs to the comment that China and Russia are not that important a threat anymore, that speaks more to a lack of recent media focus than to the reality on the ground.
If that was regarding a comment I made, I admit that may indeed be the case. I am not a political expert, and only God knows the future.
Georgia leader signs truce, but will Russia leave?
ReplyDeleteFriday, August 15, 2008 9:18 PM EDT
The Associated Press
By MATTHEW LEE and ANNE GEARAN
Associated Press Writers
TBILISI, Georgia (AP) — Georgia's president grudgingly signed a truce with Russia Friday, even as he denounced the Russians as invading barbarians and accused the West of all but encouraging them to overrun his country. A stone-faced Condoleezza Rice, standing alongside, said Russian troops must withdraw immediately from their smaller neighbor.
President Bush talked tough, too, accusing the Russians of "bullying and intimidation," but neither he nor Rice said what the U.S. might do if Russia ignored them.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's press office had no information Friday night on whether he had signed the cease-fire agreement. Russia's foreign minister assured Rice later that his country would implement the deal "faithfully," a U.S. official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because Rice's conversation was private, said Russia was likely to sign the deal Saturday.
As the secretary of state spoke in Tbilisi, Russian forces remained camped out just 25 miles away.
Associated Press reporters had seen a convoy of some 50 Russian army trucks and armored personnel carriers roar without warning southeast from the city of Gori on Wednesday, some shouting they were heading to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital. But they veered into a field outside the town of Igoeti and set up camp conspicuously within sight of the road. The Russians were still visible there Friday.
Even as Rice stood with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in a show of solidarity, he asked, "Who invited the trouble here? Who invited this arrogance here? Who invited these innocent deaths here?"
Shaky and near tears following a difficult, nearly five-hour meeting with her, Saakashvili answered his own question: "Not only those people who perpetrate them are responsible, but also those people who failed to stop it."
Rice let that pass, focusing instead on the demand that Moscow immediately withdraw its forces.
"With this signature by Georgia, this must take place and take place now," she declared.
There was no immediate clue to the Russians' intentions a week after their tanks and bombers attacked Georgia in retaliation for Georgia's attempt to retake a disputed province by force.
Russian troops allowed some humanitarian supplies into the strategic city of Gori but otherwise continued their blockade.
The cease-fire document sets out no specific penalties or deadlines. It contains concessions to Russia that Saakashvili obviously found hard to swallow. Russia could retain peacekeeping forces in the separatist region of South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, and the forces would have a broader mandate in South Ossetia.
Even if Russia fully complies with the cease-fire, the Bush administration says there will be more consequences to come. Bush's advisers are settling on penalties that would be intentionally modest and subtle, such as continuing to exclude Russia's foreign minister from discussions among his counterparts in elite gatherings of the world's leading economies.
The idea is to give Moscow the diplomatic cold shoulder while offering face-saving leeway for Russia to turn away from a mentality the West sees as throwback to its empire days. Russia would then have motivation, and some wiggle room, to seek inclusion in Western economic, political and security institutions.
In Washington, Bush accused Russia of resorting to thuggery from another era. He insisted the United States will not abandon Georgia, a Western-leaning democracy on Russia's southern flank and once part of the old Soviet Union.
"Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century," Bush said. "Only Russia can decide whether it will now put itself back on the path of responsible nations or continue to pursue a policy that promises only confrontation and isolation."
Russian withdrawal from Gori, in the center of Georgia proper, would be a major sign that Russia is not trying to hold permanent sway in Georgia or topple its enthusiastically pro-American government. By holding Gori, Russia holds the small country's only major east-west highway and effectively slices Georgia in half.
The peace pact was worked out earlier in the week by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and both sides had said they agreed to it.
Russian forces remained, however, and U.S. officials said the document would take effect once it was formally signed Friday. It tells both sides to pull their forces back to the positions they held before fighting broke out last week in South Ossetia.
Saakashvili's tirade and the forceful words from Bush in Washington suggested that a week into the crisis, both leaders were reassessing how they got here.
"We will rebuild," Saakashvili said. "We want them out. I want the world to know, never, ever will Georgia reconcile with occupation of even one square kilometer of its sovereign territory. Never, ever."
His leadership is founded on a close alliance with Washington that has always exasperated Moscow.
Bush gave his most sustained explanation of U.S. action during the crisis, saying the conflict is about much more than a small country far away. Bush made clear the real fight is about the power and ambition of nuclear-armed Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's resurgence as an energy dynamo.
"The Cold War is over. The days of satellite states and spheres of influence are behind us," Bush said at the White House, before a vacation delayed by the crisis. "A contentious relationship with Russia is not in America's interest, and a contentious relationship with America is not in Russia's interest."
Rice said the time had come "to begin a discussion of the consequences of what Russia has done. This calls into question what role Russia really plans to play in international politics."
Rice was flying to Texas, where she was to give Bush a firsthand account of her diplomatic mission.
Apparently concerned that her awkward news conference with Saakashvili had set the wrong tone, Rice spoke briefly on her own before leaving Georgia.
"It's obviously a very emotional time here in Georgia," she said after visiting wounded people in a hospital.
"It's clearly a very emotional time, but I think that it should still be seen that this was a productive day. I hope now that peace can return to Georgia and Georgians can return to a normal life."
———
Gearan reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Terence Hunt and Jennifer Loven also contributed to this report from Washington.
President Bush talked tough, too, accusing the Russians of "bullying and intimidation," but neither he nor Rice said what the U.S. might do if Russia ignored them.
ReplyDeleteThere are too many NATO troops committed elsewhere and the population in the West is not in the mood for mass causalities fighting a country like Russia.
The answer, in my opinion...nothing militarily.
Thanks very much, Jeff.
I have not been on much, My main computer has been back and forth in the shop, then I fried my lap top, I thought I would share my hot coffee with it, turns out lap tops do not like Hot coffee.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, things are going to get far worse, we have not seen anything yet. Rick b
I doubt your computer would like tea either. Fussy things.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Rick.
I came across a good editorial that expands on the role of energy that seems to be behind a lot of this conflicts in obscure corners of the world. As I mentioned earlier, Russia is the main supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe. What I didn't know was that Georgia represents one of the key recently opened pipeline routes that was meant to bypass an effective Russian energy monopoly on land based imports for European energy. So as the article indicates, this is about a lot more than some obscure ethnic minority in S Ossetia.
ReplyDeleteIts also interesting to see the recurring thread woven through Putin's ambitions over the last 8 years in his pursuit of energy dominance both home and abroad. Not that I would recommend going to war over Georgia. But we will need to take another look at Russian membership in WTO, G8 etc and take a hard look at alterate sources of energy for Europe while doing what we can to support countries like Georgia with humanitarian and perhaps military aid that find themselves directly in the path of Russian ambitions. Overall, I think we all have a lot of catching up to do including myself, because our attention has been distracted by the conflicts du jour coming out of 9/11, while all along other games have been afoot.
http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080815.wrcover16/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business
excerpts:
"For more than a decade, Russia watched while the U.S. and Europe played the new “great game” of energy geopolitics in its own backyard. It was 10 years ago this weekend that Russia plunged into financial crisis by devaluing the ruble and defaulting on its mounting debt.
With the Georgian invasion, the Kremlin has sent notice that it now controls the Risk board. And that it is willing to use its armed forces to back up what it regards as its national interest in neighbouring states.
At stake is control over one of the world's most promising new sources of crude oil – one that could rival the impact of the North Sea a generation ago. The U.S., in particular, has worked strenuously to minimize Russia's influence over this energy development.
“While it is early days to say what the security situation is going to look like in Georgia longer term, the events of the past few days deal a blow to the U.S.'s plans to support existing and new oil and gas routes that bypass Russia,” Tanya Costello, Eurasian director with the political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group, said yesterday.
For BP, the Russian invasion of Georgia could turn into a nightmare if it forces it to keep closed two oil pipelines that pump more than a million barrels a day of high-quality oil into world markets. They represent an overall revenue stream of $100-million (U.S.) a day among the oil company and its partners.
...
"As rising oil prices strengthened the Kremlin's hand, the former president, who still wields considerable power as Prime Minister, acted to correct what he viewed as the unacceptable status quo in the energy sector.
His government reined in the freewheeling Russian businessmen known as oligarchs, most famously through the controversial prosecution of OAO Yukos chief executive officer Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Yukos' assets were later sold at bargain prices to state-owned companies.
He changed the advantageous terms for Western companies operating in his country, annulling exploration licences won by Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. in the Sakhalin offshore, and then forced Royal Dutch Shell PLC to sell its Sakhalin holdings to state-owned OAO Gazprom.
He unilaterally raised previously subsidized natural gas prices to former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Belarus, raising the threat of disruptions to gas exports that flow through those states to Europe.
Mr. Putin's assertiveness was fuelled by Russia's growing economic clout, which resulted from rising oil and gas prices. Russia remains the world's second-largest producer of oil, at close to 10 million barrels a day, and the largest producer of natural gas.
As a result, its foreign reserves grew from $12-billion in 1999 to $470-billion at the end of last year, a measure of economic strength equalled only by countries such as China, India and the oil producers of the Middle East.
The added riches stoked Russia's ambitions to be an energy superpower. To bolster its presence in energy markets, Moscow not only boosted the government's role domestically but has also sought to dominate the export of oil and, especially, natural gas, from its southern neighbours.
The transportation issue is both economic and political: Russia reaps huge revenues and more control over export prices by having its state-owned firms deliver crude and gas from competitors in the Caucasus and Central Asia. At the same time, control of those exports gives the Kremlin massive political leverage over Europe.
“Russia knows they are providing huge amounts to natural gas to Europe – that they have a stranglehold on Europe,” said Oppenheimer's Mr. Gheit. “There is no question in my mind that Russia is going to play its energy card as much as it can.”
What I didn't know was that Georgia represents one of the key recently opened pipeline routes that was meant to bypass an effective Russian energy monopoly on land based imports for European energy. So as the article indicates, this is about a lot more than some obscure ethnic minority in S Ossetia. .
ReplyDeleteI had heard about the pipelines on CNN.
Not that I would recommend going to war over Georgia. But we will need to take another look at Russian membership in WTO, G8 etc and take a hard look at alterate sources of energy for Europe while doing what we can to support countries like Georgia with humanitarian and perhaps military aid that find themselves directly in the path of Russian ambitions.
Canada is the same old failure in depending too much on the United States for military protection. If Canada wants to be more independent of American foreign policy, it should be better equipped to protect its own borders.
I would not recommend that NATO fight Russia over Georgia either, but I am concerned that Western military defence may have underestimated the potential threat that Russia could be to Western democracy and freedom, in particular in Europe.
In my mind, Western defence should primarily be concerned with maintaining our own borders and lifestyle, and less concerned with Westernizing parts of the world where democracy is not a strong part of the culture.
Cheers, Dean.
It is well over 30 degrees Celsius in this loft.
Russ
"For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil." (I Timothy 6:10a)
ReplyDeleteWow, so now we not only have countries that are an 'economic superpower,' but also those that are an 'energy superpower' as well.
Personally, I think everyone in the world should ride bicycles, use windmills for energy, and use hand-fans. (I think I heard some blonde Miss America candidate say that one time, as an answer to a question as to how to solve the world's problems....j/k)
Instead of having actual wars, we should wage virtual scenario wars using the Internet. Hey, why not? I mean, "Second Life" already has real money being used to build virtual buildings, and real companies actually pay real money to build virtual stores there, and to have virtual advertising.
We could have virtual churches too then, hey Jeff.;)
ReplyDeleteHi Russ,
ReplyDeleteI can't comment with any sort of knowledge on this matter for I have no time to stay abreast. I myself can do nothing to help prevent a catastrophe. So my preparation for it is to be found in The Lord.
Blessings,
Vicki
Thanks, Vicki.
ReplyDeleteMy trust is in the Lord as well.
Russ
We could have virtual churches too then, hey Jeff.;)
ReplyDeleteActually, they already do, in "Second Life!"
LifeChurch TV Has A "Second Life" Church Campus
Second Life Mosque, Synagogue, and Virtual Churches
Second Life Anglican Church
The First Church of Second Life
An Internet Evangelism newsletter I get suggests to build your own church in "Second Life" and use it to preach the gospel. I suppose you could also do virtual street evangelism or even hold virtual evangelistic meetings in Second Life.
This is a similar article to the one Dean posted:
ReplyDeleteRussia's Big Lie
By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
August 15, 2008 4:20 PM PT
"After hearing the hard, cold facts of Russia's brutal occupation of Georgia, the West has no choice but to respond harshly to Vladimir Putin's regime. Failure to do so would only invite further attacks.
Apologists for Russia say it really had no choice: Because of "genocide" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia had to intervene. It was an "emergency." It wasn't.
This is the kind of big lie for which Hitler was famous — as when he suggested his interest in Czechoslovakia was really to rescue the Sudeten Germans, then gobbled up the entire country.
In Russia's case, this was a carefully planned operation. Once in place, Russia's leaders knew full well they weren't going to simply occupy the disputed territories, but rather fully invade Georgia — and, hopefully, topple its humiliated government.
The reason is clear: Russia wants to control the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the only non-Russian conduit that brings oil from the Caspian Sea to Europe's thirsty market. To do so would give it unparalleled control over Europe's economy.
In a riveting speech Friday, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at his side, revealed in graphic detail how Russia had gone about subjugating his country. The entire speech can be found on our Web site.
Russia systematically built up the rail infrastructure in Abkhazia to make it easier to send in troops, Saakashvili said. They began building tank bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
"They started to bring in lots of military specialists, reconnaissance," he said. "They brought in paratroopers. We screamed to the world, stop it! And there were some statements from Washington, but I have to tell you that for most of the European countries . . . there was pretty muted and quiet reaction to all this."
The trouble started when Europe balked at letting Georgia join NATO last spring. At the time, Saakashvili complained. Then, when Russian planes repeatedly violated Georgian airspace, he complained again. Though the signs were clear, he was ignored.
Now we see what Russia was preparing. The brutality and lack of humanitarian concern shown by Russia's poorly disciplined troops in attacking Georgia are shocking.
• Russia used SS-21 missiles, one of the deadliest weapons in its military's arsenal, on areas they knew contained civilians.
• Russian aircraft dropped incendiary devices on Georgian forests to create fires, panic and terror.
• Putin's forces also dropped cluster bombs on civilian populations, knowing full well those munitions' main use is to kill and maim people, not destroy buildings or damage property.
• Troops have looted, robbed banks, stolen goods, murdered, burned towns and raped women as part of a terror campaign.
Putin prepared the Russian public for this by using the cowed Russian media to whip up nationalistic hysteria, suggesting Russia was under siege and encircled by enemies ready to do NATO's bidding.
Russia planned for months, watching and learning from our response to Iran. The West told Iran to halt the enrichment of uranium and its nuclear weapons program. It hasn't, and we've done nothing. Now, our lack of resolve has come back to haunt us.
Knowing this, Russia executed its plan with brutal precision.
Our weakness invited an attack — and will invite more if we don't respond now. But the U.S. can do even more than just isolating Russia in diplomacy, or issuing pleas. We can also neutralize Putin's use of the "oil weapon" — his implicit threat to cut off oil sales to the West — by drilling for more oil ourselves.
To help, the Democrat-led Congress could immediately approve drilling on all federal lands containing oil — a move that would send crude prices tumbling and slash Russia's hard currency earnings from energy. We hope they will — but won't hold our breath."
This is the kind of big lie for which Hitler was famous — as when he suggested his interest in Czechoslovakia was really to rescue the Sudeten Germans, then gobbled up the entire country.
ReplyDeleteIn Russia's case, this was a carefully planned operation. Once in place, Russia's leaders knew full well they weren't going to simply occupy the disputed territories, but rather fully invade Georgia — and, hopefully, topple its humiliated government.
Jeff, thanks. The article makes some very good points.
Hi Russ,
ReplyDeleteI recently noticed that a lot of the good folks who showed me link love have faded off into the sunset. I’m still on most of the blogrolls (or linked in individual posts) but the technorati hourglass has apparently run out of sand. Blogrolls can keep a person’s link, but after 6 months—if nothing has changed then it drops off the radar regardless.
So, I sent out a huge link love post with a link included to you. I was wondering if you could do the same - that way the authority stays where it should be for all of us.
Thanks for considering this.
Sincerely,
Pastor Rob
http://www.robsingleton.net/
pastorrss@aol.com
Thanks, we are linked via my thekingpin68 link, and I have asked if you wanted to link with satire and theology previously. I would like to link with you if you are interested. I do write some posts where I link/mention other blogs such as:
ReplyDeleteRecent Comments
Techonrati does miss an awful lot of links!
Russ Murray
Listen people, can't we just get along...
ReplyDeleteDear Russia, Georgia is an established country apart from you, leave them alone and let them be. Let them join NATO and be free!
-WTF- Walter Thomas Franklin
Thanks, Walter.
ReplyDeleteI am glad you spelled out your name.
Interesting post here Robert!
ReplyDeleteAs austere as it may seem, just keep in mind this is all sings of the times and God is still in control.
His will be done we should all pray...
Tim
Thanks, Tim.
ReplyDeleteRuss:)